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  • دکتری (1394)

    علوم اقتصادی- (اقتصادی مالی، اقتصاد انرژی)

    تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران

  • اقتصادی مالی (Financial Economics)
  • اقتصاد کالایی (Commodity Economics)

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    ارتباط

    رزومه

    Modeling and Predicting the Electricity Production in Hydropower Using Conjunction of Wavelet Transform, Long Short-Term Memory and Random Forest Models

    Mehdi Zolfaghari, Mohammad Reza Golabi
    Journal PapersRenewable Energy , 2021 February 11, {Pages }

    Abstract

    Electricity is an important pillar for the economic growth and the development of societies. Surveying and predicting the electricity production (EP) is a valuable factor in the hands of electricity industry managers to make strategic decisions, especially if electricity is generated by renewable resources for environmental considerations. However, because the EP series is non-stationary and nonlinear, traditional methods are less robust to predict it. In this study, we offer a hybrid model which combines adaptive wavelet transform (AWT), long short-term memory (LSTM) and random forest (RF) algorithm (AWT-LSTM-RF) to predict the EP in hydroelectric power plant. We also apply the exogenous affecting variables on EP in the structure of hybrid

    Food Security in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)

    Mehdi Zolfaghari, Farzaneh Jariani
    Journal Papers , 2021 January 1, {Pages }

    Abstract

    With regards to the population growth and urbanization growth, food supply and food security both are among one of the most serious challenges for the countries of the Middle East and North Africa and such challenge can become as the main dilemma and problem for MENA region countries together with the global crises, regional crises and climatic changes. Since these countries are dependent on the imports of the foodstuffs in spite of their remarkable income which results from the both oil & gas exports accordingly any economic and political shock may endanger and jeopardize the food supply in the countries of the foregoing region. Hence, improving the political, commercial relations and the governments' performance which are done for reducin

    A hybrid approach of adaptive wavelet transform, long short-term memory and ARIMA-GARCH family models for the stock index prediction

    M Zolfaghari, S Gholami
    Journal Papers , , {Pages }

    Abstract

    Designing a model for predicting bitcoin returns (with emphasis on hybrid models of convolutional and recursive neural networks and models with long-term memory)

    MJ Bakhtiaran, M Zolfaghari
    Journal Papers , , {Pages }

    Abstract

    Impact of Socio-Economic Infrastructure Investments on Income Inequality in Iran

    Mehdi Zolfaghari, Mahbobe Kabiri, Hamideh Saadatmanesh
    Journal PapersJournal of Policy Modeling , 2020 February 28, {Pages }

    Abstract

    One of the main subjects, governments have been facing is fair distribution of income, and making effort to improve it. In this study, we evaluated the effects of economic (energy, water, ICT) and social (health, education) infrastructure expenses on income inequality in the Iranian provinces for the period of 2007-2016 by the panel corrected standard errors (PCSE) model. The results show that social and economic infrastructures improvements reduce income inequality. However, the magnitude of these effects varies. Investment on education, healthcare, communication technology, energy, and water infrastructures has the greatest impact on income inequality reduction, respectively. Therefore, in order to reduce inequality in deprived areas, com

    Impact of exchange rate on uncertainty in stock market: Evidence from Markov regime-switching GARCH family models

    Mehdi Zolfaghari, Saeid Hoseinzade
    Journal PapersCogent Economics & Finance , Volume 8 , Issue 1, 2020 January 1, {Pages 1802806 }

    Abstract

    We employ the Markov Regime-Switching GARCH (MRS- GARCH) family models under the normal, Student’s t-, and GED distributions to measure the uncertainty of the industry index returns (IIR) of Tehran Stock Exchange over the period of 2013–2019. The models distinguish between two different regimes in both conditional mean and conditional variance. The results show that the MRS-EGARCH-in-mean (MRS-EGARCH-M) models under GED and Student’s t-distributions have the best performance to model the IIR volatility. We find evidence of regime-switching behaviour in Iran’s stock market. After removing the forecastable component (expected variation) from the best fitted models, we measure the time series of the IIR uncertainty (unfore

    Volatility spillovers for energy prices: A diagonal BEKK approach

    Mehdi Zolfaghari, Hamed Ghoddusi, Fatemeh Faghihian
    Journal PapersEnergy Economics , Volume 92 , 2020 October 1, {Pages 104965 }

    Abstract

    We examine the relationship between return and volatility as well as the covolatility spillover for energy, foreign currency, and stock markets using the diagonal BEKK model. Using daily crude oil, natural gas, and the coal prices as proxies for energy prices, the S&P500 index as a proxy for the U.S. stock market, and the EUR/USD exchange rate as a proxy for the exchange rate, we find robust evidence for the volatility spillover effects among the three markets. Also, in the 16 out of 20 pairwise relationships in the five markets, there are significant negative covolatility spillover effects. In the four pairs involving coal, there are positive and significant covolatility spillover effects. We conclude that the energy markets and the stock

    The impact of oil price and exchange rate on momentum strategy profits in stock market: evidence from oil-rich developing countries

    Mehdi Zolfaghari, Bahram Sahabi
    Journal PapersReview of Managerial Science , 2020 September 11, {Pages Jan-43 }

    Abstract

    The existing literature is still inconclusive on whether momentum exists and whether momentum strategy profits are affected by macroeconomic variables. The aim of the present study is two-fold. First, we examined the existence of the momentum by studying the strategy profits in six oil-rich developing countries in Middle East including Iran, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait using the double-sort strategies. Our findings show that there is a momentum profit over short-, mid-and long-term periods in all countries. After selecting the best combinations of information sets and holding lengths for each country, by adding the oil price and the exchange rate, and adjusting the models proposed by Chordia and Shivak

    Designing a Model for Forecasting the Stock Exchange Total Index Returns (Emphasizing on Combined Deep Learning Network Models and GARCH Family Models)

    Mehdi Zolfaghari Bahram Sahabi Moamad Javad Bakhtiaran
    Journal PapersFinancial Engineering and Portfolio Management , Volume 11 , Issue 42, 2020 March 20, {Pages 138-171 }

    Abstract

    Water-Energy-Food Nexus in the Middle East and North African Countries (MENA)

    Mehdi Zolfaghari, Farzaneh Jariani
    Journal Papers , 2020 December 8, {Pages }

    Abstract

    The water, energy and food nexus approach was studied and assessed in this research in a period namely between 2009-2018 in the Middle East and North Africa countries and accordingly the results show that the nexus between water, food and energy have not been established in the Middle East and North Africa Region (MENA) as the general perspective of sustainable development and providing the residents of the foregoing region with the food and generally speaking, the important variables do not give any logical and meaningful effect to the behavioural equations of water, energy and food in this region. Therefore, the population growth especially the urbanization one, the economic prosperity and the requirements thereof may cause a pressure inc

    Impact of Financial and Trade Openness on Financial Development in Oil and Non-Oil Developing Countries using the Panel ARDL Approach (With Emphasis on Institutional Components)

    Alavi S. Sahabi B, Zolfaghari M
    Journal PapersIranian Journal of Planning and Budgeting , 2020 January 1, {Pages Jan-40 }

    Abstract

    Impact of Financial and Trade Openness on Financial Development in Oil and Non-Oil Developing Countries using the Panel ARDL Approach (With Emphasis on Institutional Components)

    Bahram Sahabi, Mehdi Zolfaghari, Somayyeh Alavi
    Journal PapersThe Journal of Planning and Budgeting , Volume 24 , Issue 4, 2020 February 10, {Pages Mar-42 }

    Abstract

    Given the importance of financial development to achieve sustainable economic growth, the main objective of this study is to investigate the effect of economic openness (financial and trade openness) on financial development (with emphasis on institutional components) in two groups of oil and non-oil developing countries. In this regard, the Panel ARDL method has been used for the period 2000-2017. The estimated results indicate a positive and significant effect of financial openness on financial development in the oil developing countries and its negative and significant impact on financial development of the non-oil developing countries in the long run. Also, the results show that trade openness has a significant and positive effect on fi

    A hybrid approach to model and forecast the electricity consumption by NeuroWavelet and ARIMAX-GARCH models

    Mehdi Zolfaghari, Bahram Sahabi
    Journal PapersEnergy Efficiency , 2019 January , {Pages 24-Jan }

    Abstract

    Today, electrical energy plays a major role in production and consumption and is of special importance in economic decision-making process. Being aware of electrical energy demand for each period is necessary to correct planning. Therefore, the forecasting of electricity consumption is important among several economic sections. Besides the traditional models, in this paper, we offer a hybrid forecast approach that combines the adaptive wavelet neural network with the ARIMA-GARCH family models and uses the effective exogenous variables on electricity consumption. Based on this approach, two hybrid models are proposed. To assess the ability of the proposed models, we forecasted the daily electricity consumption by the hybrid and

    The Impact of Social Capital on Bank Stability in Iran

    Mehdi Zolfaghari, Zahra Asadi
    Journal PapersThe Economic Research , Volume 19 , Issue 3, 2019 August 10, {Pages 85-108 }

    Abstract

    This paper aims to investigate the effect of social capital on banking stability in Iran. For this purpose, a sample of 18 public and private Iranian banks is selected over the period 2007-2017, and the System Generalized Method of Moments (SYS-GMM) is used to estimate the research model. The social capital index is proxied by the ratio of the bounced checks to the total traded checks. The results indicate a significant positive impact of social capital on bank stability. Moreover, the ratio of capital to asset and GDP per capita are positively associated with bank stability, but the non-performing loans have negative effects on bank stability.

    Designing a model for forecasting the return of the stock index (with emphasis on neural network combined models and long-term memory models)

    Mehdi Zolfaghari, Reza Najarzadeh, Samad Golami
    Journal PapersJournal of Investment Knowledge , Volume 9 , Issue 34, 2019 November 23, {Pages 231-257 }

    Abstract

    A New Model for Measuring Return Risk of Insurance Industry Index Based on Markov Approach

    Mehdi Zolfaghari Fatemeh Faghihian
    Journal PapersInsurance Reserch , Volume 34 , Issue 3, 2019 November 22, {Pages 02-Jan }

    Abstract

    A New Model for Measuring Return Risk of Insurance Industry Index Based on Markov Approach

    Mehdi Zolfaghari, Fatemeh Faghihian
    Journal PapersIranian Journal of Insurance Research , Volume 34 , Issue 3, 2019 November 22, {Pages 97-127 }

    Abstract

    Objective: The main purpose is to design a comprehensive and practical model for calculating the market risk of the insurance industry index in the stock market. The side goal is to test the behavior of the index for regime transitions in different time periods. Method :The approach used to achieve goals is to utilize the “Value at Risk” approach by combining the Markov regime process in body of the GARCH family models. ?Finding :The results of the present study show that the return risk of the insurance industry follows regime transfers and has both feedback and leverage effects. Also, the regime behavior of this industry is based on the ?distribution function. Also it is transmitted between regimes with different probabilities. Conclu

    Components and Capacities of Iran’s Soft Power in Its Cultural Diplomacy

    Mehdi Zolfaghari, Farzane Dashti
    Journal PapersSoft power Studies , Volume 8 , Issue 19, 2019 January 21, {Pages 127-154 }

    Abstract

    Today, the role of cultural components in international relations and foreign policy has been highlighted more than ever before and cultural tools have turned into the most important soft power techniques and tactics. Therefore, since cultural diplomacy provides cultural tools for realization of national interests, under the current circumstances it is in need of modern, popular and all-embracing tools to develop into a medium for realization of all potential capacities as well as historical, scientific, educational and artistic capabilities of a country to attract more and more addressees. This paper seeks to clarify soft power capacities and components of Iran’s cultural diplomacy to be of use for precise and integrated processing of pe

    Effect of intensity of cost stickiness on stock price volatility as the role of accounting conservatism

    Marziye Mahdavinia, Mahdi Zolfaghari
    Journal PapersRevista Publicando , Volume 4 , Issue 13 (3), 2018 February 17, {Pages 1084-1098 }

    Abstract

    Managers need the related information about costs to plan and achieve it. On the other hand, awareness about costs behavior by changes of the activity level or selling level are important information for managers’ decision making about planning, budgeting, pricing products, determining of break even, and other managerial issues. The relationship between costs stickiness and stock price volatility and adjusting role of conservatism was studied in Tehran stock Exchange in this research. Statistical population and sample of this research includes 93 companies in seven years of 2009-2015. This research was applied based on its objective, and data collection method (research design) was descriptive. Hypotheses of this research were test using

    An extraction and Analysis of the Return Risk of Real Estate Industry,(Based on Value at Risk Based on Markov Approach)

    Mahdi Zolfaghari, Fatemeh Faghihiyan
    Journal PapersJournal of Urban Economics and Management , Volume 6 , Issue 23, 2018 September 15, {Pages 35-54 }

    Abstract

    Today, any attempt to invest in any economic activity, requires the knowledge and access to some components of its activities. One of the important components of investment is knowledge about investment risk according to the expected return in that activity. One of the main areas of investment in the country is investment on housing, which could take place directly or indirectly (through financial markets). In this regard, the importance of awareness of the risk in indirect investment on the housing sector considering to the nature of the financial markets is more necessary. But despite the importance of knowledge about risk, quantification methods developed for the past few years have not had much development. Therefore in this research we

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    دروس نیمسال جاری

    • دكتري
      اقتصاد مالي 1 ( واحد)
      دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد
    • كارشناسي ارشد
      ماليه بين الملل ( واحد)

    دروس نیمسال قبل

    • كارشناسي ارشد
      اقتصاد خرد ( واحد)
      دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد
    • دكتري
      اقتصاد كلان پيشرفته 1 ( واحد)
    • دكتري
      اقتصاد مالي 2 ( واحد)
    • دكتري
      حقوق بين الملل پولي ( واحد)
    • 1398
      وثوقي, علي
      پيشبيني مصرف و بهاي فولاد و سنگ¬آهن و اثرات تغييرات قيمتي كوتاه¬مدت و بلندمدت آنها
    • 1399
      عزيزي, مريم
    • 1400
      بالطف, مهدي
    • 1398
      رسولي, سعيد
      اثرات برون صنعتي و درون صنعتي تحريم هاي اقتصادي بر عملكرد صنايع در بازار سرمايه ايران و نقش اقدامات پولي و مالي
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